Germany’s grape harvest forecast about 20% below its ten-year average

The German Wine Institute issued an initial forecast on October 12 that this year’s nationwide grape harvest would be about 20% below the ten-year average.

Final estimates from all regions are not yet available, and the projection does not mean every region lost the same share.

The reference is not last year

The benchmark is a national ten-year average of 8.7 million hectolitres. One hectolitre equals 100 litres, making that average 870 million litres. The announcement does not forecast a 20% decline from last year. The institute also cites 7.7 million hectolitres in 2025 and 7.8 million in 2024, both below the long-term average.

Vine age and soil make a difference

The institute describes an exceptionally dry, sunny summer. It says older vines with deep roots coped better with drought, while young vineyards and light soils with less water storage suffered more. This is the institution’s field assessment, not a uniform experiment measuring damage in every vineyard.

Earlier estimates need their own date

ARD’s independent October 13 coverage presents the institute’s forecast alongside an earlier estimate by the federal statistics office. That estimate refers to September 20, before harvesting was complete. Projections with different observation dates and comparison periods should not be combined into a single confirmed harvest total. Final regional returns may change the outlook again.

Quality hopes do not establish prices

The institute expects high quality, but that remains a producer assessment and forecast. A smaller harvest does not show that every wine will be better or that retail prices must rise. Final regional harvest figures and subsequent production statistics are the next checks. These materials do not provide a product-specific purchase or investment price forecast.

Primary sources and independent checks

Industry primary source: October 12 initial forecast, ten-year baseline and incomplete regional returns: Deutsches Weininstitut (DWI)

Independent reporting: distinguishes DWI’s forecast from an earlier statistical estimate: ARD / tagesschau

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