{"id":897,"date":"2026-07-27T14:05:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T05:05:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/briefing\/2026-07-27-iea-renewables-overtake-coal-en\/"},"modified":"2026-07-27T14:05:00","modified_gmt":"2026-07-27T05:05:00","slug":"2026-07-27-iea-renewables-overtake-coal-en","status":"publish","type":"briefing","link":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/briefing\/2026-07-27-iea-renewables-overtake-coal-en\/","title":{"rendered":"Renewables may overtake coal while power emissions still rise 1%"},"content":{"rendered":"

2026-07-27 14:05 KST<\/strong><\/p>\n

The IEA forecasts that renewable sources will overtake coal as the world\u2019s largest source of electricity generation for the first time in 2026.<\/p>\n

Yet some countries have switched from expensive gas to coal, so power-sector carbon dioxide emissions are forecast to rise 1% in the same year.<\/p>\n

Two figures define the transition<\/h2>\n

Renewable generation is forecast to grow by more than 8% in 2026, with its global share rising from 33% in 2025 to 37% in 2027.<\/p>\n

Solar PV output is set to add about 600 TWh in 2026 and pass wind as the second-largest renewable source after hydropower. Taking first place does not automatically cut emissions.<\/p>\n

Electricity demand is accelerating<\/h2>\n

Global demand growth is forecast at 3.0% in 2025, 3.6% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027. Industry, appliances, EVs, cooling, heat pumps and data centres are driving the increase.<\/p>\n

Consumption reaches 30,700 TWh in 2027 from 28,600 TWh in 2025. New renewable output must meet growth as well as displace coal.<\/p>\n

\"Produced
Produced explanatory image: it shows expanding renewables alongside remaining thermal generation and is not a photograph of a specific facility or an IEA chart.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

A gas shock brought coal back<\/h2>\n

Disruption through the Strait of Hormuz temporarily removed nearly 20% of global LNG supply and lifted Asian and European gas prices. Some systems switched from gas to coal.<\/p>\n

The IEA expects power-sector emissions to rise 1% in 2026 and broadly plateau in 2027.<\/p>\n

Grids and flexibility become the next constraint<\/h2>\n

Without transmission, storage, demand response and effective local price signals, a renewable lead can still produce curtailment and price volatility.<\/p>\n

Global averages hide contrasts: Australian second-quarter wholesale prices were about 45% lower with renewables and batteries, while the EU and Japan were more than 30% higher.<\/p>\n

These are forecasts, not final results<\/h2>\n

The 2026 and 2027 values rely on mid-year information. Conflict, LNG supply, gas prices and economic conditions can alter demand and emissions.<\/p>\n

A stronger El Ni\u00f1o could raise cooling demand while cutting hydro and wind output in some regions. Year-end data must confirm the crossover and the change in coal generation.<\/p>\n

Official Primary Sources<\/h2>\n

IEA: Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026 report and data<\/a><\/p>\n

IEA: executive summary with demand, generation and emissions forecasts<\/a><\/p>\n

IEA: official release and headline figures<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The IEA forecasts renewables will overtake coal in global electricity generation for the first time in 2026. Yet gas-price shocks are pushing some systems toward coal, and power-sector CO2 emissions are forecast to rise 1% in the same year.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":[],"class_list":["post-897","briefing","type-briefing","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/briefing\/897","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/briefing"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/briefing"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=897"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}