{"id":632,"date":"2026-07-21T00:23:07","date_gmt":"2026-07-20T15:23:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/briefing\/2026-07-21-strong-el-nino-2026-outlook-en\/"},"modified":"2026-07-21T12:12:34","modified_gmt":"2026-07-21T03:12:34","slug":"2026-07-21-strong-el-nino-2026-outlook-en","status":"publish","type":"briefing","link":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/briefing\/2026-07-21-strong-el-nino-2026-outlook-en\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o has a 97% chance of lasting into spring 2027"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>2026-07-21 00:20 KST<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o is already under way, and WMO expects a strong phase during July-September 2026. NOAA gives it a 97% chance of lasting into early spring 2027 and an 81% chance of becoming very strong in October-December.<\/p>\n<h2>The change is already under way<\/h2>\n<p>El Ni\u00f1o is already under way and strengthening quickly. The World Meteorological Organization expects it to reach a strong phase during July-September 2026. NOAA\u2019s 9 July assessment also found clear signs that the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere are changing together.<\/p>\n<h2>What 97% and 81% mean<\/h2>\n<p>NOAA highlights two probabilities: a 97% chance that El Ni\u00f1o persists into early spring 2027, and an 81% chance that it becomes very strong during October-December 2026. The latest Ni\u00f1o-3.4 temperature was 1.2\u00b0C above normal, while WMO expects seasonal anomalies above 2\u00b0C in some key regions.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/07\/strong-el-nino-2026-outlook-en.png\" alt=\"Generated satellite-style view of unusually warm equatorial Pacific waters\" loading=\"eager\" \/><figcaption class=\"op-briefing-image-caption\">Generated image: ONEPRESS visualized the warm Pacific band and atmospheric patterns associated with El Ni\u00f1o. It is not an observation or forecast map.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>Why impacts differ by region<\/h2>\n<p>The 97% figure is the probability that El Ni\u00f1o continues. It is not a 97% probability of flood or drought in a particular city. El Ni\u00f1o changes the odds of drought, heavy rain, heatwaves and marine heatwaves differently by region and season. Conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans can strengthen or weaken those effects.<\/p>\n<h2>What to check now<\/h2>\n<p>A global outlook cannot replace a local forecast. Readers should follow seasonal updates and hazard guidance from their national meteorological service. Flood-prone communities can review drainage and emergency plans; farmers and water managers can check rainfall outlooks; people vulnerable to heat can review heat-health guidance.<\/p>\n<h2>The 13 August update and official sources<\/h2>\n<p>The next key checkpoint is NOAA\u2019s ENSO diagnostic update scheduled for 13 August 2026. WMO provides the global multi-model outlook, while NOAA explains the 97% and 81% probabilities. NOAA GFDL\u2019s SPEAR system projects an even stronger event, but it is experimental and must not be treated as a guaranteed forecast.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/wmo.int\/media\/news\/el-nino-forecast-intensify-increasing-likelihood-of-extreme-weather\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">WMO global seasonal climate outlook<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov\/products\/analysis_monitoring\/enso_advisory\/ensodisc.shtml\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NOAA ENSO diagnosis and the 97% and 81% probabilities<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gfdl.noaa.gov\/prediction\/july-2026-el-nino-predictions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NOAA GFDL experimental SPEAR outlook<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>El Ni\u00f1o is already under way, and WMO expects a strong phase during July-September 2026. NOAA gives it a 97% chance of lasting into early spring 2027 and an 81% chance of becoming very strong in October-December.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":[],"class_list":["post-632","briefing","type-briefing","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/briefing\/632","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/briefing"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/briefing"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=632"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}