{"id":1758,"date":"2026-09-03T17:55:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T08:55:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/briefing\/2026-09-03-wmo-very-strong-el-nino-2027-en\/"},"modified":"2026-09-03T17:55:00","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T08:55:00","slug":"2026-09-03-wmo-very-strong-el-nino-2027-en","status":"publish","type":"briefing","link":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/briefing\/2026-09-03-wmo-very-strong-el-nino-2027-en\/","title":{"rendered":"El Ni\u00f1o is almost certain through February 2027, WMO says it will become \u201cvery strong\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"

2026-09-03 17:55 KST<\/strong><\/p>\n

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on September 3 that El Ni\u00f1o is firmly established and is expected to peak at \u201cvery strong\u201d intensity toward the end of 2026. Seasonal prediction systems put the likelihood of it persisting through February 2027 at nearly 100%.<\/p>\n

This does not mean every place will be equally hot or face floods and droughts of the same severity. El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s strength is a risk signal, while actual impacts depend on location, season, conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans, and local preparedness.<\/p>\n

What changed in the latest outlook?<\/h2>\n

At the end of July, WMO expected El Ni\u00f1o to strengthen. The new regular update goes further: it forecasts very strong intensity and says persistence through February 2027 is nearly certain. The Ni\u00f1o 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly averaged +1.5\u00b0C from May through July and reached +2.0\u00b0C in July. Reinforcing ocean and atmosphere signals, together with agreement across models, support the high confidence.<\/p>\n

What does \u201cnearly 100%\u201d mean?<\/h2>\n

It is not the chance that a disaster will strike a particular city. It is the probability that tropical Pacific ocean and atmosphere conditions will continue to meet El Ni\u00f1o criteria. A persistent event can keep shifting the background pattern of global temperature and rainfall, but this number alone cannot identify the date or severity of a local heatwave, flood, or drought. Local short-range forecasts and seasonal outlooks remain essential.<\/p>\n

\"El
This AI-generated image explains the topic; it is not a photograph of the actual event, observation, or experiment.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

What is expected from September to November?<\/h2>\n

WMO\u2019s multi-model outlook shows increased odds of above-normal temperatures across nearly all land areas. Rainfall displays a pronounced El Ni\u00f1o pattern, with wetter and drier zones in different places. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to develop, while the tropical Atlantic should remain generally warm. These factors can strengthen, weaken, or shift the usual El Ni\u00f1o effects by region.<\/p>\n

What should people and institutions check now?<\/h2>\n

Agriculture, health, water, energy, and emergency agencies should combine the global outlook with regional seasonal forecasts. Individuals should not make travel or livelihood decisions from the El Ni\u00f1o label alone. Check heat, drought, flood outlooks and early warnings from the meteorological service where you live. WMO likewise directs readers to national services and regional climate centres for locally useful detail.<\/p>\n

What remains unknown?<\/h2>\n

The exact sea-surface temperature anomaly at the peak, the location and timing of individual extremes, and the rate of weakening after spring 2027 are not settled. El Ni\u00f1o is a natural fluctuation operating on top of human-caused long-term warming, so this event will not simply repeat a past one. Future WMO updates and monthly regional outlooks should be checked against observations.<\/p>\n

Primary sources and independent checks<\/h2>\n

WMO 9\uc6d4 3\uc77c \uacf5\uc2dd \ubc1c\ud45c<\/a><\/p>\n

WMO El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a \uc815\uae30 \uc5c5\ub370\uc774\ud2b8<\/a><\/p>\n

El Pa\u00eds\uc758 \ub3c5\ub9bd \uae30\ud6c4 \uc124\uba85<\/a><\/p>\n

Tagesschau\uc758 \ub3c5\ub9bd \ub2f9\uc77c \ud655\uc778<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

WMO expects El Ni\u00f1o to peak at very strong intensity late this year. Its continuation through February 2027 is nearly certain, but that does not mean every region will face the same hazards.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":[],"class_list":["post-1758","briefing","type-briefing","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/briefing\/1758","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/briefing"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/briefing"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1758"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}