{"id":1530,"date":"2026-08-28T05:53:00","date_gmt":"2026-08-27T20:53:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/briefing\/2026-08-28-germany-heat-mortality-2026-en\/"},"modified":"2026-08-28T05:53:00","modified_gmt":"2026-08-27T20:53:00","slug":"2026-08-28-germany-heat-mortality-2026-en","status":"publish","type":"briefing","link":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/briefing\/2026-08-28-germany-heat-mortality-2026-en\/","title":{"rendered":"Germany estimates 15,800 heat-related deaths in 2026 \u2014 not a count of death certificates"},"content":{"rendered":"

2026-08-28 05:53 KST<\/strong><\/p>\n

Germany’s Robert Koch Institute (RKI) estimated the number of deaths related to heat waves to be approximately 15,800 by August 16, the 33rd week of 2026. The 95% prediction range is 14,500 to 17,000, of which approximately 9,600 were calculated to be related to a particularly hot week in late June.<\/p>\n

This number does not count people who have \u2018heat wave\u2019 written on their death certificate. It is an estimate that compares death data from the Federal Statistical Office and temperatures from 52 weather stations to a statistical model and compares it to deaths expected in the absence of heat. Data for the past 9 weeks may change due to reporting delays.<\/p>\n

How was RKI calculated?<\/h2>\n

Heat waves can cause direct causes of death, such as heatstroke, but they usually worsen existing diseases such as heart and lung disease. So RKI uses a model to calculate the relationship between the actual number of deaths per state and temperature. Additional deaths that occur when average temperatures exceed approximately 20\u00b0C are estimated to be heat-related.<\/p>\n

In what period were deaths concentrated?<\/h2>\n

RKI believed that about 9,600 people were related to the high temperature in the 26th week of late June, and about 4,000 people were related to the heat from late July to mid-August, which was the 31st to 33rd week. The national weekly average temperature for the 33rd week was 21.9\u00b0C, and 12 out of 16 states exceeded 20\u00b0C.<\/p>\n

\"Germany
This AI-generated image explains the topic; it is not a photograph of the actual event, observation, or experiment.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Who was most influenced by<\/h2>\n

The estimated number of people aged 85 or older was 7,960, or about half of the total. It was estimated that there were 3,910 people between 75 and 84 years old, 2,440 people between 65 and 74 years old, and 1,470 people under 65 years old. Because there are differences in population size and underlying diseases by age, it should not be read simply as an individual risk rate.<\/p>\n

How does it compare to past records?<\/h2>\n

In RKI’s like-for-like comparison, 2018 and 2019 each had about 7,000 or more. This year’s figure of 15,800 is even greater than that through week 33 alone. However, the 2026 figures have not yet been finalized, and the final values \u200b\u200bmay change after models and data are updated.<\/p>\n

What should readers look for?<\/h2>\n

During a heat wave warning, you should reduce outdoor activities during the day, drink water frequently, and monitor changes in indoor temperature and consciousness of the elderly and those with chronic diseases. This is not a problem that can be solved through individual action alone, so local measures such as access to cooling, urban shade, and health agency connections are also important. The latest figures can be found in the RKI weekly report.<\/p>\n

Primary sources and independent checks<\/h2>\n

RKI weekly heat-mortality report<\/a><\/p>\n

Deutsches \u00c4rzteblatt independent report<\/a><\/p>\n

Die Zeit independent report<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Germany’s RKI estimated heat wave-related deaths at 15,800 by week 33 of 2026. It is a statistical model value combining death data and temperature, and the 95% prediction interval is 14,500 to 17,000 people.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"template":"","meta":[],"class_list":["post-1530","briefing","type-briefing","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/briefing\/1530","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/briefing"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/briefing"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/onepress.co.kr\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1530"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}