WORLD NEWS
Renewables may overtake coal while power emissions still rise 1%
The IEA forecasts that renewable sources will overtake coal as the world’s largest source of electricity generation for the first time in 2026.
Yet some countries have switched from expensive gas to coal, so power-sector carbon dioxide emissions are forecast to rise 1% in the same year.
Two figures define the transition
Renewable generation is forecast to grow by more than 8% in 2026, with its global share rising from 33% in 2025 to 37% in 2027.
Solar PV output is set to add about 600 TWh in 2026 and pass wind as the second-largest renewable source after hydropower. Taking first place does not automatically cut emissions.
Electricity demand is accelerating
Global demand growth is forecast at 3.0% in 2025, 3.6% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027. Industry, appliances, EVs, cooling, heat pumps and data centres are driving the increase.
Consumption reaches 30,700 TWh in 2027 from 28,600 TWh in 2025. New renewable output must meet growth as well as displace coal.
A gas shock brought coal back
Disruption through the Strait of Hormuz temporarily removed nearly 20% of global LNG supply and lifted Asian and European gas prices. Some systems switched from gas to coal.
The IEA expects power-sector emissions to rise 1% in 2026 and broadly plateau in 2027.
Grids and flexibility become the next constraint
Without transmission, storage, demand response and effective local price signals, a renewable lead can still produce curtailment and price volatility.
Global averages hide contrasts: Australian second-quarter wholesale prices were about 45% lower with renewables and batteries, while the EU and Japan were more than 30% higher.
These are forecasts, not final results
The 2026 and 2027 values rely on mid-year information. Conflict, LNG supply, gas prices and economic conditions can alter demand and emissions.
A stronger El Niño could raise cooling demand while cutting hydro and wind output in some regions. Year-end data must confirm the crossover and the change in coal generation.
Official Primary Sources
IEA: Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026 report and data
IEA: executive summary with demand, generation and emissions forecasts